Profitability of simple fixed strategies in sport betting: Soccer, Germany Bundesliga, 2009-2019

A simple fixed strategy is a strategy to bet the same fixed amount of money on a particular event, for example that a home team wins, for all games in a pre-selected group of games.

In this book calculations of profitability of fixed strategies in soccer for 2009-2019 Germany Bundesliga seasons are presented.

All games are divided on groups, based on implied probabilities or which team is a home team or an away team. For each group profitability (return on investment -ROI) is calculated for each season. For example, if we look into the table with games where Dortmund was a home team, we can see that betting on away teams in 2014-2015 season would give us over +97% return on all bets. If we look into the table with games where average implied probabilities for a home team to win are in the range of [70%,80%], we see that betting on away teams would give us over +165% return on all bets in 2012-2013 season.