Profitability of simple fixed strategies in sport betting: Soccer, Portugal Liga I, 2009-2019

A simple fixed strategy is a strategy to bet the same fixed amount of money on a particular event, for example that a home team wins, for all games in a pre-selected group of games.

In this book calculations of profitability of fixed strategies in soccer for 2009-2019 Portugal Liga 1 seasons are presented.

All games are divided on groups, based on implied probabilities or which team is a home team or an away team. For each group profitability (return on investment -ROI) is calculated for each season. For example, if we look into the table with games where Boavista was a home team, we can see that betting on this home team in 2017-2018 season would give us over +74% return on all bets. If we look into the table with games where average implied probabilities for a home team to win are in the range of [0%,10%], we see that betting on home teams would give us over +126% return on all bets in 2017-2018 season.